The right is jumping for joy. The Left is tightening its belts. And Donald Trump, who will cross the threshold of the White House as early as January 20, announces mass deportations, prohibitive tariffs and the bombing of cartels inside Mexico.
This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
The right-wing presidents of Argentina and El Salvador are cheering. Javier Milei managed to fulfill his big dream: he became the first president from Latin America to take a selfie with Donald Trump. To do so, the Argentine went to the States - just after the Republican won the November 5 election. The two posed with their thumbs outstretched, just as Milei likes best, Trump congratulated him on "making Argentina great again."
However, the right's joy may prove short-sighted - Trump's announced prohibitive tariffs and deportations will also affect countries ruled by his supporters.
It is likely to hurt Mexico the most.
Biblical plagues
"Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States," these words, spoken by Mexican dictator Porfirio Díaz more than a century ago, ring very true today.
For it is primarily on Mexico that Trump promises to send biblical plagues. First: prohibitive tariffs on Mexican products, in defiance of the free trade agreement between the two countries. Second: the bombing of cocaine cartel bases in Mexico, thus nothing less than military intervention on the territory of another country. Third: the deportation of millions of people whom Trump calls "aliens" or "aliens" (aliens).
How many millions of "aliens" are we talking about? No one knows. During the campaign, Trump raced to raise that number with himself. From the one million people whom future vice-president J.D. Vance promised to "expel from the U.S. immediately," to the 11, 15, and even 23 million that appeared in the future president's statements.
People living in the US without permanent residency permits number approx. 11 million. Almost half of them are Mexicans.
In posts published on his own TruthSocial platform, Trump links all three topics: tariffs, migration and drugs.
The prohibitive tariffs - 25 percent on "all" products imported from Mexico - will remain in place until "drugs, especially fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" - original spelling.
As in the case of the famous radio play War of the Worlds by Orson Welles, broadcast on Halloween 1938, many of the millions of listeners were unable to distinguish truth from fiction and believed that Earth was really invaded by aliens, today many Americans also believe in an "alien invasion."
Duty for duty
What does Mexico have to say about all this? Leftist President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that if Trump imposes prohibitive tariffs on Mexican products, her country will respond with the same - an eye for an eye, a duty for a duty.
Sheinbaum also stressed that Mexico is increasingly effective in controlling migration from Central America to the States. The number of illegal border crossings between Mexico and the U.S. has dropped sharply in the past year, official statistics show - Sheinbaum sent them to Trump by letter.
In discussing the drugs that Trump argues Mexico is flooding the United States with, Sheinbaum stresses that her country is not a consumer of them, instead it pays a huge price in the form of drug crime violence claiming more and more lives. The president also points out that as much as 70 percent of the illegal weapons confiscated in Mexico come from the US.
"We don't manufacture weapons, we don't use synthetic drugs. Unfortunately, the drug trade kills our people to meet the demand in your country," - Sheinbaum said at a press conference, addressing Trump directly.
My Mexican friends don't believe the Republican's threats. - What prohibitive tariffs there, the religion of Americans is: "to make it cheap". - film director Rodrigo Reyes tells me over the phone. - Spend millions? People who voted for Trump were thrilled with slogans about mass deportations, but I don't think he's going to implement the idea. Deporting so many people would be too complicated and against the law," says Reyes.
Reyes was born in Mexico and lives in the US. Among other films, he made Purgatory, a documentary about the US-Mexico border, which he himself first crossed as an illegal immigrant. He explains that in recent years his homeland and the States have had successful cooperation on border control and migration.
- The U.S.-Mexico border in practice is now located in Chiapas, in southern Mexico. Mexican authorities often detain people right there, preventing them from reaching the actual border with the States, Reyes says. In his view, this cooperation will be broken if the US makes demands on Mexico without offering anything in return.
"I believe that when Trump takes office, he will show restraint in his actions" - writes friend Gabriel Mejía Pérez to me.
Mejía lives in Mexico City and runs a small bicycle store there.
"Relations with Mexico are strategic for the US. Trump is not going to throw them in the trash just like that." - he asserts. He adds, "Of course, he will push to ensure that the topics that are priorities in his narrative are discussed in the region as the most important ones."
There is much to fear
Personally, I see several significant reasons for concern. One of them is the appointment of Thomas Homan as "border czar." Homan led the ICE border guards during Trump's first term. He was the one who approved the controversial initiative to separate immigrant parents and children after they crossed the border from Mexico into the US.
In the tariff war, it is Mexico that has the most to lose. It exports about 80 percent of its goods to the US and depends on trade with its northern neighbor far more than vice versa.
After Trump's second win, Venezuela and Cuba have lost hope that the US economic sanctions imposed on them will be lifted in the coming years. Cuba is also still on the U.S. list of "countries that sponsor terrorism," from which Biden promised to remove it, but seems to have forgotten.
The island no longer believes that tourists from the States will return. They won't come back, because they are not allowed to travel to "countries sponsoring terrorism." Then again, neither are we - if we wanted to enter the US under the Visa Waiver Program, staying in Cuba after 2021 will prevent us from doing so.
Cuba is unlikely to particularly care about Trump, however, he has chosen Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State, who has Cuban roots and advocates the toughest possible policy toward the island.
Other leftist governments fear Trump will punish them for their harsh criticism of Israel over its war crimes in Gaza, and even contribute to the destabilization of the region.
When the local right tried to prevent a democratic changing of the guard in Guatemala in January 2024, Biden's envoys worked tirelessly behind the scenes to ensure that progressive victor Bernardo Arévalo could take power. Meanwhile, people close to Trump spread conspiracy theories about a rigged election. Today, the Guatemalan right feels the wind blowing in its sails.
And come February 2025, the first round of elections in Ecuador. If the left - as many predict - scores a minimal victory, and the right is unwilling to recognize it by refusing to give up power, Trump could step in.
My Mexican friends, however, don't want to worry about a backlash. Rodrigo Reyes, however, admits that it's hard for him to think about "another four years with that asshole (cabrón) in the White House."
