This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
Katarzyna Przyborska: The government of Donald Tusk got a three in your survey. Medium. Because from the PiS voters a tally, from the Confederation a tally with a plus, from the Left and 3D a three and from the KO electorate a 4 plus. And at the same time Polish women and men are generally satisfied and feel safe..
Adam Traczyk: Indeed, applying a school yardstick to the results of our survey, one can say that the government is performing at 3+, but Poles are living better today than they did a year ago - at least a 4 plus. The economic situation is perceived as better than in the declining period of PiS rule, the perceived quality of life has increased. Maybe it's the effect of lower inflation, a perceptible economic acceleration, raises in the budget sector, on top of that KPO, so we can feel more secure, we know that the injection of EU money will not run out.
So overall it's pretty good. The problem for the coalition, however, is that this improvement in the situation is not necessarily fully seen as a credit to the government.
And how about translating this well-being into segments? You distinguish seven key groups in the survey: progressive zealots, passive liberals, disappointed loners, uncommitted normals, fulfilled localists, proud patriots and committed traditionalists. A sizable portion of the Left's voters belong to the segment of progressive zealots. Satisfaction average. Likewise the Third Way electorate, which gave the government a three..
Leftist voters actually show impatience and disappointment, but the dominant emotion is hope. They see that this government has yet to deliver in several aspects, for example, on the right to abortion or civil unions, but they still give it credit. Looking more broadly, progressive zealots expected the most from this government, but they also looked forward to it the most and are emotionally connected to it the most, and they rate it best in the end.
By contrast, in the Third Way electorate, which is made up of a mix of centrist segments - uncommitted normals, fulfilled localists, disappointed loners and passive liberals - there is no widespread impatience with what the government is doing, but there is some indifference. For a large portion of these voters in October 2023, it was crucial to curb bickering, the brutalization of political language, but the entry of politics with boots into their lives. Their goal, therefore, was to remove PiS from power, but they had no clear vision of policy for the future. Hence their current withdrawal.
This desire for appeasement was then embodied in the slogan "Enough bickering, forward." However, they are not the only ones who have lost interest in politics. It is evident in all segments. If the elections were to be held today, the turnout would be lower than nearly 75 percent and there would be no chance for a big pre-election march. Is this due to disillusionment, or to the fact that it is impossible to last too long in such an intensification? It rises and then sinuously falls.
Let's also remember that such a high turnout was not only surprising, but also the result of numerous mobilization campaigns. Today we are back to a natural state of affairs probably also compounded by the feeling of some citizens that this government may not be the best, but it does not personally threaten them. It does not push with politics into every aspect of life - about abortion rights to the propaganda judging from TV screens. Some voters fought for this when they threw their vote into the ballot box on October 15 - for the opportunity to shun politics, and now he is receiving his reward. He finally has a breather after the election triple jump. But today's drop in interest in politics may just be the calm before the storm of the presidential election.
Can they be mobilized for the presidential election?
We don't know that yet. Just as we didn't know, a few months before the October 15 elections, whether young women would go in crowds to cast their vote in the ballot box. It all depends on whether the government will show voters that it is worth defending its record and giving it a chance to do more. Many moderate and moderately politically active voters in 2019 were ready to defend the Law and Justice government because it made their lives better. Now the coalition must convince voters that it's worth defending its achievements, but also allow it to accelerate.
If you had to advise on the choice of a presidential candidate, according to what voters expect, who would you suggest? Should he or she be polarizing or bridge the divide?.
The ideal president unites, he is the president of all Poles, he focuses on the community. The problem is that such a candidate has no chance of getting into the second round, because this is decided by the iron electorates of each political camp. A candidate from outside the system - Kukiz, Holownia, or historically Tyminski - can stir things up in the first round, and sometimes set the mood for the second round as well. But without a total collapse of one of the main political camps, they won't break through, even if they could theoretically have a chance to win - like Holownia in 2020.
So the ideal candidate electrifies, excites his own electorate, but doesn't necessarily polarize, because that would also mobilize political opponents. And in the first round, it's simply important to have a choice, to not be doomed immediately to the lesser of two evils, and to be able to support the candidate or candidate who represents our identity, views and visions of the future. So it's good that the discussion about a single candidate for the ruling coalition has now quieted down. This is also important for political pluralism....
And in the second round?
We need a candidate who will give us a measure of confidence in his ability to lead us through difficult times. We see that Poles crave security, although at the same time they feel safe in Poland. On top of that, the concept of security is multifaceted - from hard military security, energy security, the issue of migration to economic and personal security. So it's not necessarily about someone in uniform, nor about instilling additional fears, but exuding confidence, someone with a certain gravitas, someone who will be a refuge.
During the convention on October 12, Rafal Trzaskowski was the first to come out after Donald Tusk, he spoke the longest, talking about civil society, civil defense, local governments. Radoslaw Sikorski, on the other hand, announced some specifics from the level of security and development, place in Europe - exactly what comes out in the surveys. Two figures were outlined - and conventions like the last one are tests to see which one will play better?.
Exactly yes, the play will be to find the right balance between these soft and hard aspects of security. It's a very interesting correspondence duel. Radoslaw Sikorski is probably having his best time. He is not polarizing, and is even gaining recognition from the more conservative electorate as well. But from the point of view of electoral mechanics, the key will be to mobilize not only the center-right electorate, but also to keep the left-wing, more progressive electorate with the Civic Coalition. And for this, Rafal Trzaskowski is the ideal candidate.
And for the leftist electorate, there is nothing worse than PiS and they will vote for the lesser of two evils. Or they will stay home..
The iron electorate decides whether you get into the second round, and the ability to build a winning coalition of the presidential election result will be decided by the non-dual electorate. We saw the difference between Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski in the previous elections. These are really small shifts that will guarantee victory.
Will Radoslaw Sikorski be able to pull as many left-wing voters as Trzaskowski in the second round, i.e. 85 percent or only 75 percent? This difference could be crucial here. On the other hand, it seems that Sikorski, if only through his assertive stance on Ukraine, could more easily attract some of the Confederation's electorate. But would it be significantly more than Trzaskowski managed, i.e. almost 50 percent?
Who will need to be mobilized more actively? Disappointed loners, uncommitted normals and fulfilled localists?.
Not only to mobilize, but above all to convince. Uncommitted normals rarely vote, but they may appreciate the power that guarantees them a good and peaceful life, or rebuke those introducing unrest. Disappointed loners often seek alternatives outside the duopoly. Fulfilled localists are a field of competing center-right forces. And then there are passive liberals, a segment important to the liberal camp, because while PiS has nothing to look for there, the Confederation does. On top of that, while in keeping with the middle-class ethos they think it's a good idea to vote, you have to make sure they don't choose a weekend out of town instead, or take a certificate.
Can they be engaged aspirationally?
It can, although it is not obvious. Passive liberals are people who are largely focused on their personal success, their careers. The state should not interfere with them, not interfere, but create conditions for development.
So the PO should nevertheless create some kind of strategy, have a vision of the future written out? And Radoslaw Sikorski, who spoke about the "triple jump" of railroad and aircraft development, is this what the electorate wants to hear?.
This would certainly help reduce some of the deficit that the current government is facing. Less than a third of the public believes that it has a clear vision of Poland's development. That's a bit low.
Is big development projects, like from the Second Republic, a recipe for success?.
Such projects are visible symbols of development. In our survey, Poles say they feel pride in them. In our focus groups, we often hear that Poles are proud of our country's infrastructure. It is worth noting that development is not one-dimensional. When we asked Poles directly whether the government should focus primarily on large investments or improving the quality of public services, the latter option won minimally.
What is there to mobilize passive liberals and disappointed loners?
For both segments, public services are more important. Passive liberals are individualists; they don't crave collective symbols of development as much. Disappointed loners, on the other hand, are the Polish left-behinds, who suffer most from the collapse of state services because they cannot afford private ones. This shows that development must constantly be looked at holistically. A new airport and high-speed rail are nice, but it's important not to lose the common man in all this, who can't wait indefinitely in line to see a doctor.
You checked what the ideal Poland should be like in 10 years, and again it turns out that the majority lists safety first. Next in order: fair, democratic, law-abiding, strong, united, tolerant, and respected in the world. Sounds nice. And after Saturday's conventions, it seems that politicians know these polls, because this is the kind of Poland they presented. How is it in the various electorates?.
Security is on the podium in all electorates of all parties present in the Sejm. Only in the case of the Civic Coalition electorate is it not in first place, and in third place, on a par with the rule of law, second only to democracy.
And we are back to square one - we feel secure, but we also see a number of threats that could tarnish this state. And this is the challenge for the political elite - what to change so that nothing changes.
Did the level of aspiration rise in society through social transfers? Do we still want to take part in the competition for the steepest old-timer, still chasing Germany, or already be at the same level?".
Transfers are unlikely to have raised the level of aspirations, but they have had a positive effect on the level of expectations of the state and political elites. There are no more excuses - you have to deliver. And as for aspirations, we can see that we are more confident, assertive, we believe that we have nothing to be ashamed of, we are no longer a younger brother. On the other hand, the issue of chasing the West has been somewhat camouflaged - Germany has its CPK, why don't we have it yet?
So Morawiecki's idea of doubling port throughput and competing with Hamburg and Antwerp is a good one?.
The perspective of rejecting non-dascism and complexes towards the West is good. However, it is worthwhile for our development plans to be embedded in some sober assessment of reality. Too often in our history we have already lived by mirages.
Donald Tusk has pointed to migration control as the basis for thinking about security. Are we ready to pay for this by giving up human rights, militarizing Podlasie?".
What Poles certainly wish for regardless of party divisions, and we see this clearly from our surveys, is a sense of control. A sense that there is a certain order in matters of migration. This is not a feeling motivated by xenophobia, anti-migrant reflexes, because a mere 20 percent of Poles consider reducing the number of people coming to Poland a key priority of our migration policy. The vast majority of Poles also don't mind if their neighbor is a person from the Middle East or Africa, or a Muslim. What is important, however, is that the world around me be orderly and predictable. Donald Tusk spoke about this very control, but also about respect for migrants working in Poland, and creating conditions for integration. This is a combination on which to build trust.
However, he stated at the same time that the law will return to the border only when everyone knows that this road cannot be crossed..
The issue of suspending the right to asylum is undeniably problematic and, in my opinion, it was unnecessary to put it forward. Of course, it can be argued that this is just legalizing the status quo. After all, asylum applications at the border are mostly not accepted anyway. Nevertheless, although the prime minister's proposal enjoys high public support, as recent polls have shown, I think he unnecessarily heated up the atmosphere. So did Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz in harshly criticizing rights organizations. I understand the need to draw public attention to the government's firm and tough steps, but I would have liked a less antagonizing tone and an appreciation of the role of institutions that protect human rights. Throwing human rights defenders out of the picture and putting them in the kind of role PiS has been putting them in - as an anti-state element - is extremely dangerous to democracy and the liberal order, for which human rights are the essence.
There is absolutely the potential in Polish society to base migration policy, but also the story of migration policy, on both security and compassion and respect for the other.
This is based on research? What do you base this optimistic conclusion on? .
When asked in our research what is most important to Poles on the issue of migration, the largest number of Poles indicated getting full control over who can migrate to Poland. This was 43 percent, followed by 21 percent of respondents who cited humane treatment and full application of the right to seek asylum for those crossing the Polish border as the most important issue. This shows that a migration policy based on maintaining control and order and on empathy can find support from the majority of the public.
What's next for the unfulfilled promises of a year ago, like civil unions and women's rights? Do these still interest people at all, or have they hung their expectations on a peg and are waiting for a change of president?.
The coalition's electorate is waiting, and this is certainly a crack in its image. The media have already written that ideas are being discussed in the prime minister's office to combine the presidential election with an abortion referendum. This would be an attempt to run ahead and mobilize the electorate. After all, we can see that the topic of abortion is being quickly moved into the private sphere by the public and needs to be reignited politically. The same was true before the elections a year ago, as evidenced by the numerous pro-choice campaigns targeting women. Now the prime minister could say: it didn't work in the Sejm, President Duda would have blocked it anyway, but let's do it together - in a referendum and by electing a new head of state who will sign the relevant law. This tactic, of course, is not without risks and drawbacks, but it could be tempting.
Your survey shows that the most common emotion toward the government in society as a whole is disappointment, followed, however, by hope. In addition, anger, impatience. Where do these feelings come from? And to whom do they belong when the general public is broken into segments? .
Disappointment is primarily an emotion of the Law and Justice electorate. The coalition electorate is dominated by a sense of some hope, and this applies to all parties that make up the coalition. Hope is an emotion directed toward the future. This is shown by the government's balance sheet to date, which is not yet satisfactory, but it has not used up all the credit for confidence.
So there is a chance to still mobilize this society before the presidential elections?.
There certainly is. Besides, we can see how the party polls break down. Admittedly, not everyone gives, when converted to seats, a majority to the current government, but we can see that even if these smaller coalition partners are getting a bit weaker, the Civic Coalition is strengthening accordingly, so there are more voters supporting the ruling parties than those supporting the opposition parties. So there seems to be some strategic advantage for the ruling camp over the opposition. But let's not kid ourselves, the battle for the presidency will be fierce until the last day of the campaign.
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Adam Traczyk - Director of More in Common Poland, formerly co-founder of the think-tank Global.Lab. A graduate of the Institute of International Relations at the UW. He also studied political science at Friedrich Wilhelm University in Bonn and Latin American and North American studies at Freie Universität in Berlin.
