In the new Bundestag, (pro-Russian) radicals from both flanks will be much stronger, but unlikely to enter government. A new coalition will be formed by the CDU/CSU with the SPD or the Greens, and Friedrich Merz is likely to become chancellor.
This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
Germany has not yet had time to recover from the shock of Donald Trump's victory, when there was another shock - the government of Olaf Scholz collapsed. Composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), Liberals (FDP) and Greens, the so-called "streetlight coalition" ended its life after three years of friction. No one will mourn after it in Germany - according to a September poll by the Allensbach center, only 3 percent of citizens viewed the government's work positively.
The coalition partners have quarreled over everything: migration policy, foreign policy, energy, social policy, the budget. Sparks were mainly between the leftist Greens and the pro-business FDP. Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who came from the latter party, insisted on restrictive financial policies and blocked borrowing to help Ukraine. The dispute determined the breakup of the coalition.
The German economy is in a terrible state. It is harmed by technological backwardness, competition from China, and high energy costs after being cut off from Russian gas. The coalition partners differed in their assessment of how to save it, while Germany's middle class grew poorer. Fringe parties - the newly formed alt-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) - profited from the growing public discontent.
New elections are likely to be held in March, until then Chancellor Scholz will steer a weak minority government. In the latest Politbarometer poll, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) lead with 33 percent, with the AfD in second place (18 percent) and the SPD in third place (16 percent). If elections were held today, the Greens (12 percent) and the BSW (6 percent) would also enter the Bundestag. Outside it would be the Left (4 percent) and the FDP (3 percent).
In the new Bundestag, (pro-Russian) radicals from both flanks will thus be much stronger, but unlikely to enter government. A new coalition will be formed by the CDU/CSU with the SPD or the Greens, and Friedrich Merz is likely to become chancellor. In the former case, the biggest friction will be over policy towards Ukraine, in the latter - over migration policy (especially the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the CSU, has very conservative views on this issue). However, a two-party coalition will be easier to steer, especially since the strong CDU will have a strong position in it.
The new CDU/CSU program, announced in September, is strongly conservative. Its leitmotifs are the concepts of freedom and security. The Christian Democrats promise to strengthen the Bundeswehr, increase aid to Ukraine and strengthen cooperation with France and Poland. They want to save the economy by cutting taxes and abolishing the basic civic benefit (Bürgergeld), introduced by the streetlight coalition. And tighten migration and integration policies.
However, it is difficult to judge which of these ideas will actually move to the implementation phase after the elections are won. - It is still too early for that, and it depends on who enters into a coalition with the Christian Democrats," assesses Dr. Karol Janoś of the Western Institute. - We can certainly expect continued support for Ukraine and significant investment in the Bundeswehr. And also a strengthening of ties with the US and NATO, although here much depends on Donald Trump's foreign policy.
For Poland, the Christian Democrats' rule is good news, especially in a variant with the Greens, because the party - unlike the SPD - has no sentiments toward Russia. Worse news for the broader left. The dramatic collapse of the German coalition with two left-wing parties in its lineup, while the AfD has strengthened, is further evidence that the Western progressive agenda cannot convincingly respond to the brown wave flooding Europe.
