Everything indicated that Marine Le Pen would compete for the Elysée Palace for the fourth time in 2027, but a court ruling may stand in her way. After all, the embezzlement of 7 million euros has come under the magnifying glass of the judiciary, and the prosecution is asking for prison and a ban on holding public office. How real is the threat hanging over the nationalist leader?
This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
Looking back at Marine Le Pen's political career, one could argue that she has progressed in a rather unhurried but also unstoppable manner. From winning 18 percent of the vote in the 2012 presidential election, to succeeding in the European vote and reaching the second rounds twice in successive presidential campaigns, to breaking through the glass ceiling in the parliamentary elections and shattering the "cordon sanitaire" around her formation.
The Republican front blocked the electoral victory of National Unity (RN), but the 141 nationalist deputies constitute a force serious enough that Michel Barnier's new government is dependent on Le Pen's support. The center-right has recognized the radical right as a better partner than the left, thus ending the practice of isolation. The icing on the cake for Le Pen would naturally be winning the presidency in 2027, but not only political rivals but also the judiciary may stand in the way.
Creative accounting by the nationalist leader
Investigations related to Marine Le Pen's activities from the time of the (then) National Front leader's tenure as an MEP have been dragging on for a decade. The French prosecutor's office was interested in the issue of the fictitious hiring of parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016, which served to raise additional funds for the far-right party. According to investigators, over the course of twelve years, as a result of "systematic and organized embezzlement of public money," more than twenty FN activists embezzled nearly €7 million.
If the court finds Marine Le Pen complicit in this crime and grants the prosecution's request for a fine of 300,000 euros and 5 years imprisonment (including 3 suspended), it will be the end of the dream of the presidency for the leader of the French nationalists, at least in the near future. Especially since imprisonment would go hand in hand with disqualification from holding public office, and a provisional application of the latter punishment is also in play.
This would mean that even if an appeal is filed, Le Pen would still not be able to run for election until it is reviewed and possibly acquitted. French judges would have shown much more decisiveness here than American judges, who were very conservative in Trump's case, delaying the verdict and in effect allowing the Republican to run a successful presidential campaign, which the ongoing proceedings have not harmed.
Criminal or political trial?
Le Pen, following the example of the American president-elect, maintains that she is completely innocent and that the ongoing trial is purely political. The judges and prosecutors defending the establishment are expected to accomplish what Macron and other politicians have failed to do - prevent the leader of the radical right from gaining power. Although the RN has since reluctantly returned one million euros to the European Parliament, party activists deny that this would constitute an admission of guilt.
Of particular outrage is the risk of being stripped of the opportunity to run for the presidential elections even before the appeal is heard, which Le Pen's supporters and herself say would be unprecedented repression. The politician speaks of a "political death penalty" and compares the conduct of the French justice system to the practices of authoritarian regimes.
However, if one juxtaposes the potential verdict in Marine Le Pen's case with other court rulings on embezzlement of public funds, one finds that the prosecution's suggested punishment is not particularly harsh. In recent years, anyone convicted of this crime has also been banned from holding public office, so the possible abandonment of this measure would even represent exceptional clemency on the part of judges toward the National Unity leader.
Is there a Brutus lurking in the RN?
Quite unexpected in the context of Le Pen's ongoing trial was the declaration of Jordan Bardelli, who has formally led the RN for several years and is typified as the Marine's successor. Indeed, the young MEP announced that no one who has been validly convicted by a court of law will run for the party's lists. Some see this as an unfortunate timing, while others see this as a deliberate ploy by the rising star of the French far right.
Bardelli's statement can be interpreted as a belief in a successful outcome for Le Pen in the trial, but he may well be sharpening his teeth to replace his mentor in the upcoming presidential campaign, and a possible conviction would make it significantly easier for him to do so. The RN chairman should remember, however, that when in 1998 the then number two among the Nationalists, Bruno Mégret, tried to take advantage of Le Pen senior's judicial problems to take the helm of the party, it ended in disaster for him and his departure into political oblivion. Among other things, this is why Bardella will rather play it safe, quietly waiting his turn.
For the moment, Marine remains the favorite to represent the RN in the upcoming elections, and one of the main, if not the main candidate to replace Emmanuel Macron in the Elysee Palace. As the United States has shown, lawsuits are not a problem for politicians of the radical right. At least until they end in a guilty verdict, and French judges may prove less gracious - in the case of Le Pen, we can probably expect further settlements early next year.
