The post-war order guarded by big brother is a thing of the past. The U.S. is making concessions to Putin, but with the peace process put into practice - including making sure Russia doesn't want the whole hand after receiving a finger - we are left alone.
This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
On Wednesday, the worst-case scenario for Ukraine became the most likely. The United States is ready to give back to Russia the Ukrainian territories it occupies and block Ukraine's NATO membership. Europe can deploy its troops in Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission, but in the event of an attack from Russia, NATO has no intention of defending them. Ukraine will have no say here.
That's according to statements by Donald Trump after a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin and statements by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Brussels.
This turn of events should actually come as no surprise to anyone. Trump announced even before the election campaign began that he wanted to end the war as soon as possible. Some - particularly in Ukraine - hoped, however, that this could mean a turnaround favorable to the attacked side. That Putin would piss off Trump with something, that Trump would not allow himself to weaken the West as a global player, or at least that - as a seasoned businessman - he would not allow himself to perform poorly in negotiations.
So far, Trump has behaved like a car salesman looking to get rid of one of his best cars at the lowest possible price. A faulty gasket under the engine head or some other stubborn defect makes it an expensive and time-consuming operation to bring it back to working order. There is already a buyer for the car, and he would be willing to pay more because he really cares about this model, but the dealer is all over it. He wants this Mercedes, meaning Europe along with Ukraine, to disappear from his sight as soon as possible. He will wring a few more valuable parts out of it before the transaction.
After all, Trump agreed to almost all of Putin's conditions, and even before the peace negotiations began. It didn't matter to him at all that Russia had been suffering heavy losses for months and making little progress in Ukraine. Contrary to earlier assurances, he did not signal that Russia's strongly probable torpedoing of the peace process would be met with some firm response. A few days earlier, he had stated in addition that the rare earth metals offered to him by Ukraine are due to the States not only for future, but also for past military assistance.
Misgivings to Putin and blaming Ukraine
Ukraine woke up today in a dire mood. It has long had little faith in full victory - that is, the defense of all its territories. However, that Trump's one tweet would wipe Ukraine out of the position it has struggled to win over the past three years of military and diplomatic efforts was hardly expected by anyone. Ukrainian commentators are fairly unanimous in stressing that Ukraine is willing to make concessions, but permanent relinquishment of territories to Russia and restrictions placed on the military - including its freedom to form alliances - are not an option. President Zelenski announced Thursday that he would not accept any agreements between Moscow and Washington made without Kyiv's participation. The trouble is that Trump apparently has no intention of asking anyone's opinion - not even in a symbolic way.
This is evidenced by his failure to consult with the Ukrainian side on the content of the Putin talks, his removal of Keith Kellogg, Trump's rather pro-Ukrainian envoy on Russia and Ukraine, from the peace negotiations, and Trump's comments assigning blame to Ukraine for the outbreak of war. As recently as January, he accused Zelensky of saying he should not have allowed war with Russia, and on Wednesday, when asked by reporters about Kyiv's role in the negotiation process, he paled: "Ukraine must make peace. Getting involved in this war was not a good idea."
Quite shocking are Trump's musings to Putin about the US-Russian commonality. "We reflected on the great history of our peoples and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II," - Trump wrote in his tweet. He did not stammer a word about the fact that in the Red Army, along with the "great Russian people," Ukrainians and a number of other nations colonized by Russia also fought. It appears that the US president is about to accede to the Russian narrative on Eastern European history. And that Russia has a chance to return to the international arena as a full-fledged player, without paying any price for the crimes it has committed.
What does Europe have to say about this?"
The Kremlin, in response to the revelations, invited Trump to a Victory Day ceremony held annually on May 9 in Red Square. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev wrote on Telegram that "the leaders of Russia and the US deserve sincere thanks," and echoed Trump: "let common sense prevail!". In doing so, he warned Ukrainian and European politicians that they "will be accountable to their voters" for provoking the current conflict.
Trump's moves put Europe in no less difficult a position than Ukraine. The post-war order guarded by big brother is a thing of the past. The U.S. is making concessions to Putin, but with the implementation of the peace process in action - including making sure Russia doesn't want the whole hand after receiving a finger - we are left alone. Also hanging in the air is Putin's 2021 demand for a return to the Cold War division of spheres of influence - and therefore NATO's withdrawal from all of Eastern Europe.
Nonetheless, Europe reacted to the news from the United States rather mutedly. EU diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas issued a statement late last night on behalf of the Weimar Group of States (France, Poland, Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK) announcing security guarantees for Ukraine - but without any specifics. Britain aspires to be the leader of European support for Ukraine - its Defense Minister John Healey announced the transfer of a new batch of armaments and strongly opposed peace negotiations without Kyiv's participation. "In terms of action for Ukraine, we are and will be. On the issue of action for the security of Europe, we are and will be," he - he assured.
His Polish counterpart Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz chose a strategy of cloaking himself before Trump. After the Brussels deliberations, during which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth presented the new U.S. security policy, he assured in a conversation with reporters that Ukraine would not join any NATO, "and it's good that this statement was made by the U.S., because now the situation is clear." In doing so, he rebuked other European countries for not yet meeting Trump's demands on arms spending, and instructed Ukraine that gratitude is due for its assistance. Such caution in addition to the ongoing election campaign in Poland was probably influenced by the fact that Hegseth is scheduled to visit Warsaw on Friday.
A security conference will be held in Munich this weekend, which is expected to include a meeting between Hegseth and representatives of the US administration. The future of not only Ukraine, but also the European Union, may depend on what tone - and how coherently - European politicians speak at it. The question is whether, in the new, transitional world order, they will be willing to defend only the particular interests of their countries or the continent as a whole. At stake in this game is the survival of Europe - the same Europe that Ukraine aspires to and is fighting to join.
