It is impossible to protect against the flood. We are not able to stop it. However, we can carry out urban planning in such a way, manage water in such a way that its surplus does not endanger infrastructure or people.
This text has been auto-translated from Polish.
Paulina Januszewska: "This is not the flood of the millennium, we have a millennium of floods ahead of us." - A post with such content was posted on their social media by activists of the East initiative. Are they right?".
Prof. Zbigniew Karachun: Yes. If we do not introduce a sensible climate policy, we have to expect that floods are likely to be more numerous and become more frequent, and more catastrophic and tragic in their consequences.
"But after all, floods have always happened. We had a big flood in 1997, too," say people who are cooling down "climate alarmism." What would you answer them?".
Of course, floods and droughts are not extraordinary phenomena. However, it is worrying that we are seeing a trend of changes in their frequency and severity. Since 2011, we have had a permanent summer drought in Poland punctuated by increasingly heavy rainfall. That is, there is a decline in low rainfall (10-20 mm per day) in favor of an increase in heavy rainfall, above 70 mm/day, and catastrophic rainfall, above 100 mm/day. Naturally occurring phenomena are superimposed on human-induced climate change.
What specific processes are influencing flooding to become more severe? .
The most obvious, direct and related to climate change is the increase in average temperature. This year has been a record year in terms of the values indicated by thermometers. The warmer it is, the more intense the evaporation, and this means that the more water that has to recirculate as rain collects in the atmosphere. This works - to put it very simply - both ways.
This is why we have drought and flood at the same time .
Yes. Evaporation causes drought, and the subsequent precipitation is very violent and can cause, if not the kind of flooding we're seeing in Lower Silesia right now, then the flash flood we saw a few weeks ago in Krakow, Zamosc or Greater Poland.
This situation is compounded by the very unwise policies being pursued on water management. We are fighting water instead of trying to cooperate with it. The problem lies in the fact that in Poland after 1989 we completely rejected urban planning, stating that it was an invention of communism. As a result, floodplains were built up and are still being built up.
Also important is how much we have come to believe in the narrative that we are smarter than nature and that purely engineering and technical solutions are more effective than those based on imitation or trying to use examples seen in nature. And then we are surprised that this one turns out to be stronger than us. We don't stop the excess water, but do everything to drain it into the Baltic Sea as quickly as possible. We build embankments, which, it turns out, can't withstand the pressure of the water, or are too low in relation to the amount of water coming in, and this causes disasters like the one observed today in Lower Silesia.
How, then, should space and water be managed?
We should introduce so-called natural-based solutions, such as renaturalizing the course of rivers or restoring wetlands. Above all, however, we should return to the idea of polders, that is, a kind of dry retention reservoirs - areas in the vicinity of rivers, devoid of infrastructure onto which water can spill, so that the flood wave is flattened, and come to an agreement with farmers so that their meadows and farmland serve this function. If water is retained there, if it is retained there, it will simply not spill over in cities and urban areas. We also need to improve the urban planning system and stop building on floodplains.
"In the Klodzko Basin, the heaviest precipitation occurred directly over the Snieznik massif, from which water flowed, creating surges on rivers. It is precisely in the Śnieżnik massif that mountain forests have been cut down for years at a tremendous rate, lowering the retention capacity," wrote Jan Mencwel. Is it really logging to be included in activities that intensify flood risk?.
I do not know what the situation in Lower Silesia looks like in detail in this regard, so I leave this to other experts. On the other hand, I do agree that the problem of cutting down mountain forests and quite intensive forest management, consisting precisely in the extraction of large amounts of wood in various regions of Poland, especially in the mountains, has a huge impact on the water cycle in nature. This is because forests are a huge natural retention reservoir. A solution that is slowly making its way into the public consciousness in Poland is the restoration of wetlands in forests as something that constitutes wise water management and an example of adaptive action to climate change.
Joanna Kopczynska, president of Polish Waters, said there had been an unpredicted discharge of water into the Mietkow reservoir from a reservoir administered by Tauron. Donald Tusk is in shock. And you?
I think this is an institutional problem. These types of activities should be managed very carefully. For now, they require explanations. I cannot say whether the discharge was due to a lack of regulations or a lack of coordination between the company and public institutions, but it could, incidentally of course, have contributed to additional dangerous situations. However, we can't say that the entire problem with floods and the disaster observed in Lower Silesia was caused by the discharge of water from one reservoir.
I ask this in the context of the operation of mines and power plants, whose impact on landforms and water management is important and can affect how the sites they operate handle storms. Is this at all a thread worth paying attention to in the context of current events?.
I would not link the two issues. Without a doubt, transformation of the energy system and its decarbonization are prerequisites for wise climate policies that mitigate the effects of climate change, including floods. However, I would not focus on mines and power plants in the case of the situation in Lower Silesia. Of course, I'm not saying that they don't have an impact on the issues you mention, but, for example, mine discharges of salted water in the Oder River basins or the Gliwice Canal have a much larger and much more negative impact on water quality, not a quantitative issue. The catastrophe on the Oder River in 2022 and the renewed bloom of golden algae in it a few weeks ago are the main consequences of the mines' mismanagement of water.
I will repeat myself, but I must emphasize that what we really need is a comprehensive strategy for adaptation to the effects of climate change - including institutional and related to the management of emergencies that will occur more frequently in Poland. We may be prepared for the "drought of the century," for the "flood of the century," while we are not prepared for these types of phenomena to happen every year. We talked about the "flood of the millennium" in 1997, and the "flood of the century" in 2010. We have 2024 and another such event, and as a result, we need to build a structure for the operation of state institutions capable of responding efficiently and effectively to disasters.
And was it even possible to protect ourselves from flooding? Is it even possible, given that it is impossible to accurately predict the effects of climate change?.
It is impossible to protect against flooding. When, especially in mountainous areas - where it is known that water, flowing down from these mountains, will accumulate in the form of a flood wave - 300 or 350 mm of water falls in three days, which is actually Poland's six-month average rainfall, it is impossible to stop the element. However, we can carry out urban planning in such a way, manage water in such a way that its surplus does not endanger infrastructure or people, does not lead to deadly tragedies and loss of life's possessions.
Of course, there are already claims that flood victims are responsible for their choice, because they erected their buildings in floodplains. But the question is whether they knew this, whether they did it consciously, and whether, by chance, this was not due to the irresponsibility of the state or local authorities that simply allowed this to happen.
You signed an appeal to politicians to "start a serious parliamentary debate on how to get out of the climate crisis, accelerate the process of decarbonization of the entire Polish economy, and give priority mode to climate change adaptation." What should Donald Tusk's government do first to show that it is responsibly addressing the climate crisis? .
I would be most interested in creating a cross-party team to develop a long-term strategy for Poland's adaptation to the effects of climate change. I would like this group to include politicians of all parties, but also experts, scientists, local government officials, NGOs, who will identify the biggest threats and ways to respond to them in terms of infrastructure, organization and institutions. Such a group should develop a concrete and effective plan for the implementation of climate policy - of course, after the floods in Lower Silesia are over, because at the moment the most important thing is to ensure people's safety.
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pprof. Zbigniew Karaczun - a professor at the Warsaw University of Life Sciences, an expert of the Climate Coalition.
